MODELING THE EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON CORAL BLEACHING IN DOMINICA

Coral bleaching is a critical degradation phenomenon affecting coral reef ecosystems globally, primarily triggered by environmental stresses such as elevated sea surface temperatures. Small island nations and coastal regions in tropical areas, including the Caribbean and East Africa, are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts on their marine ecosystems. This research analyzes the influence of environmental factors on coral bleaching events across multiple geographic locations using statistical modeling approaches. The study employs Stepwise Linear Regression methods to identify significant environmental predictors from a comprehensive set of 36 variables, including oceanographic and meteorological parameters such as sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), thermal stress anomalies (TSA), thermal stress anomaly degree heating weeks (TSADHW), wind speed, water depth, turbidity, salinity, exposure, cyclone frequency, and distance to shore. Data were collected from bleaching events at multiple reef sites, with severity categorized into three levels based on bleaching intensity: low (1-10%), moderate (11-50%), and severe (>50%). Model verification was conducted using Pearson correlation coefficients and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) to assess prediction accuracy and model performance. The analysis reveals that thermal stress parameters, particularly SSTA frequency, TSA standard deviation, and TSADHW, consistently emerge as the most significant predictors of coral bleaching severity across different geographical contexts. The developed models demonstrate high prediction accuracy with correlation coefficients exceeding 0.90, indicating strong relationships between environmental factors and bleaching outcomes. These findings suggest substantial potential for application in operational monitoring systems and forecasting future bleaching events. Understanding the complex relationships between environmental drivers and coral bleaching dynamics is essential for supporting sustainable management of coral reef ecosystems and developing adaptive strategies in response to ongoing global climate change. The research contributes to the broader scientific understanding of coral reef resilience and vulnerability patterns in the face of increasing thermal stress events worldwide.

Keyword: Statistical modelling; Coral bleaching; Environmental factors