ANALISIS FAKTOR CUACA KEJADIAN BANJIR BANDANG DI WILAYAH MASAMBA PADA TANGGAL 13 JULI 2020
Written by: Resky Aulia M and Halmar Halide
ABSTRACT
Background. Indonesia’s location between two continents (Asia and Australia) and two oceans (the Indian and Pacific) makes it susceptible to various climate phenomena at local, regional, and global scales. This geographical position also makes Indonesia prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, tsunamis, and many others. As a result, Indonesia is classified as one of the most disaster-prone countries, both in terms of natural disasters and those caused by human activities. Among the most frequently occurring disasters is flooding. In general, a flood is an event where water levels in a channel rise and exceed its capacity. There are several types of floods, including extreme rainfall floods, upstream floods, tidal floods, and flash floods. A flash flood is a sudden flood event that occurs within approximately six hours, caused by heavy rainfall, dam failure, or levee collapse. Objective. This study aims to develop a regression model of weather factors that significantly influence rainfall and analyze the relationship between these significant weather factors and rainfall triggering the flash flood event in Masamba on July 13, 2020. Methods. The research method used is the Multiple Regression Stepwise method, where rainfall serves as the dependent variable (Y) and weather factors as the independent variables (X). Result. The analysis results show that the regression model formed to predict rainfall during the analysis period, from July 9 to 16, 2020, retained only two significant variables: wind speed and wind direction. With an R2 value of 0.818, the model indicates that wind speed and wind direction have a dominant influence on rainfall intensity during the analysis period (July 09–16, 2020).
Keywords: Multiple Regression Stepwise, Weather Factors, Flash Flood, Rainfall, Wind Speed, Wind Direction
